Trade Game in the Stainless Steel Industry
Release time: 2025-07-04Views: 0

The stainless steel industry in 2025 is undergoing profound changes. From the shock of the global trade pattern to the optimization of the domestic industrial structure, from the continuation of anti-dumping measures to the expansion of high-end production capacity, this traditional industry is responding to market challenges with a new attitude and looking for new growth poles in the fluctuations.

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Market game under trade protectionism

On July 1, 2025, China's Ministry of Commerce officially announced that it would continue to impose anti-dumping duties on imported stainless steel billets and hot-rolled plates/coils originating from the European Union, the United Kingdom, South Korea and Indonesia, and the period would be extended to 2030. This decision stems from the continued identification of dumping behavior in the country of origin - if the measures are terminated, imported products may impact the domestic market at a low price, threatening the security of China's stainless steel industry. Behind the high tax rates of 43% in the European Union, 103.1% in South Korea and 20.2% in Indonesia, there is a continuation of trade frictions for six years, which also reflects the deep contradiction of imbalance between supply and demand in the global stainless steel market.

At the same time, global trade protectionism presents a domino effect. South Korea imposes an anti-dumping duty of 21.62% on thick stainless steel plates from China, the EU implements new "melting and casting traceability" rules to block tariff evasion paths, and Turkey launches anti-dumping investigations while investing in China. This complex situation of "coexistence of containment and openness" forces companies to recalibrate their strategies in the reconstruction of international market rules.

Dual variations of capacity expansion and structural upgrading

Despite facing trade barriers, China's stainless steel industry maintains a strong expansion momentum. In the first half of 2025, Fujian Hongwang's 250,000-ton cold-rolled bright plate project and Qingtuo Special Steel's 1 million-ton medium and thick plate project were put into production one after another, and Yongjin Technology's 400,000-ton cold rolling base in Turkey also entered the construction sprint stage. These projects present two significant characteristics: First, the technology iteration is accelerated. The Qingtuo project adopts the world's first "hot rolling-hot loading-hot annealing" integrated process, and the yield rate exceeds 95%; second, the product is high-end. The 80,000-ton capacity of Yongjin's Turkish base specializes in high-end fields such as aerospace and new energy vehicles.

The other side of industrial upgrading is the accelerated clearance of backward production capacity. After reducing 400-series steel production by 100,000 tons in June, Tsingshan Group plans to reduce production by another 150,000 tons in July, reflecting the industry's self-regulation under profit pressure. This trend of "high-end incremental expansion and low-end inventory compression" is reshaping China's stainless steel's global competitiveness.

Market price: Finding a balance in the tug-of-war between supply and demand

The market data for July 2025 revealed contradictory signals: Shanghai Futures Exchange stainless steel warehouse receipts fell by 61 tons month-on-month, and social inventory fell by 1.42%, but the spot price of 304 cold-rolled steel still hovered in the 12,700 yuan/ton range, with a significant discount compared to the futures market. This pattern of "reduced inventory and weak prices" exposes the continued game between weak downstream consumption and supply pressure.

There are also undercurrents on the cost side. Indonesia's nickel ore policy adjustment has pushed up raw material costs, and rumors of a ban on nickel ore exports in the Philippines have exacerbated market anxiety, but the release of Indonesia's nickel iron production capacity has suppressed prices. The coexistence of "push" and "pull" on the cost side has caused the price of stainless steel to fluctuate widely in the range of 12,000-13,000 yuan/ton.

Future Outlook: New Opportunities in Change

Looking back at the midpoint of 2025, the stainless steel industry is undergoing a triple transformation: from scale expansion to quality priority, from low-end manufacturing to high-end intelligent manufacturing, and from a single market to a global layout. The intelligent control system supporting the Qingtuo Special Steel Project and the digital production line adopted by the Yongjin Turkey Base indicate that intelligent manufacturing is becoming the new standard in the industry.

What is more worthy of attention is the acceleration of green transformation. The 600,000-ton cold rolling project of Fujian Runxin Industry adopts RKEF-AOD low-energy consumption technology, and the energy consumption per unit product is reduced by 15% compared with traditional processes, which marks a technological breakthrough in the industry under the "dual carbon" goal. When environmental protection standards become a new threshold for global trade, green manufacturing capabilities are being transformed into new competitive advantages.

While the dark cloud of trade protectionism has not yet dissipated and the pain of capacity upgrade is still ongoing, China's stainless steel industry is using technological innovation as a spear and structural optimization as a shield to open up a new channel in the countercurrent of globalization. From the intelligent workshop of Qingtuo Special Steel to the multinational layout of Yongjin Turkey Base, this traditional industry is writing a new chapter of Made in China - not a simple replication of capacity, but a reconstruction of the value chain; not a passive market response, but an active reshaping of rules. In this endless transformation, only those who continue to evolve can cross the cycle and win the future.

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